Business Planning for Turbulent Times
New Methods for Applying Scenarios
Edited by Rafael Ramírez ,  John W. Selsky ,  Kees van der Heijden
Publisher: Earthscan Publications Ltd.
, 316 pp., 6 1/8" x 9 1/4"
figures & tables
Series: Science in Society Series
The world is an increasingly turbulent and complex environment, awash with tipping points and knock-on effects ranging from the impact of warfare in the Middle East on energy futures, investment and global currencies to the vast and unpredictable impacts of climate change.

This book is for business and organizational leaders who feel the ever increasing turbulence of the environment and are interested in thinking through how to deal with related complexity and uncertainty. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation, and specifically modern scenario techniques, help to address increasing risk and lead to more confident and robust decisions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of settings and circumstances including the large corporations, inter-governmental organizations like the World Bank, small firms, municipalities and other communities.

Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business. A key feature of the book is the exchange of insights across the academic-practitioner divide. What has previously remained jargon only accessible to the highest level of corporate and government futures planners here becomes comprehensible to a wider business and practitioner community.

Table of Contents:
List of Figures and Tables; List of Contributors; Preface; Acknowledgements; List of Acronyms and Abbreviations; PART I 1) Introduction: Why Write This Book and For Whom?—Rafael Ramírez, Kees van der Heijden and John W. Selsky; 2) Conceptual and Historical Overview—Rafael Ramírez, John W. Selsky and Kees van der Heijden; 3) How Do Scenario Practices and Search Conferences Complement Each Other?—Jaime Jiménez; 4) Reflecting on Scenario Practice: The Contribution of a Soft Systems Perspective—Trudi Lang and Lynn Allen; 5) New Forms of Coherence for the Social Engagement of the Social Scientist: The Theory and Facilitation of Organizational Change from the Perspective of the Emery-Trist Systems Paradigm and the Ilya Prigogine School of Thought—Mary Bernard; PART II 6) Turbulence in the Indian Agricultural Sector: A Scenario Analysis—Kees van der Heijden; 7) Swarm Planning: A New Design Paradigm Dealing with Long-Term Problems Associated with Turbulence—Rob E. Roggema; 8) Designing More Effective Political Governance of Turbulent Fields: The Case of Healthcare—Niklas Arvidsson; 9) To What Extent Do Venezuela’s Causal Textures Allow Scenarios to Work Towards Social Dialogue?—Martin Thomas; PART III 10) Managing Disruptive Change and Turbulence Through Continuous Change Thinking and Scenarios—John W. Selsky and Joseph E. McCann; 11) Scenarios That Provide Clarity in Addressing Turbulence—Rafael Ramírez; 12) From Causal Textures to Predetermined Elements to New Realities in Scenario Thinking and Practice—George Burt; 13) Conceptions of Fairness and Forming the Common Ground—Shirin Elahi; 14) Turbulence and Corporate Social Responsibility: Is There a Role for Scenarios?—Andromache Athanasopoulou; PART IV 15) Conclusion: The Conjuncture of Scenarios and Causal Textures: Contributions and Progress—John W. Selsky, Kees van der Heijden and Rafael Ramírez; Postscript; Index.


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Reviews & Endorsements:
“This stimulating book offers much needed reflection on the conceptual foundations of scenario planning and related methodologies for navigating uncertainty. A diverse range of authors draws important linkages to various academic disciplines, and...illuminate important links between theory and practice that have been largely underappreciated. The book probes deep questions, offers a wide scope of inquiry and garners important new insights building on multiple schools of thought. [A] welcome and important addition to our field.”
- Paul J. H. Schoemaker, author of Winning Decisions, Profiting from Uncertainty and Peripheral Vision and Adjunct Professor , Wharton School of Business
”This is a very useful book. It integrates different methods of strategy making in an insightful way that will benefit thoughtful executives and practice-oriented academics alike.”
- Yves Doz, Professor of Strategic Management , INSEAD