Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions and methods abound describing how best this can be accomplished. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, or alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory.

This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. By giving context which allows anyone engaged in public oriented foresight to reflect on their own actions, the book will foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges and will ultimately lead to better informed decision making.

Table of Contents:

1. Researching Policy-Oriented Foresight in Action

2. First Impressions of Foresight Practice

3. Dealing with Policy

4. Practicing the Scenario Matrix

5. Dealing with Prospective Uncertainty

6. The Past, the Present and the Future

7. Reflection on Action